Stock market fluctuations and economic recessions are two entirely different animals, and a market decline doesn’t ‘turn into’ a recession, though it may anticipate an economic recession. There is a weak correlation between economic recession and (past) market returns, but the correlation to interest rates is stronger. One reason for this is that some industries are quite sensitive to interest rates, such as home building, and higher rates reduce demand for new houses; we’re seeing that effect now. If the Fed reduces rates later this year, home building will almost certainly pick up again. High interest rates also affect the demand for financed consumer goods, such as automobiles, and for capital expenditures. If you want a good leading indicator for the market, watch the Fed.